The good news.
The Dow was up 122 points or 1.2% and the S&P 500 was up 1.5% on Friday after the Federal Reserve reported consumer borrowing increased by 2.43% although credit card and other kinds of revolving credit declined by 2.3% following a 16 month trend of declines. Auto loans were up 5.01% in January and made up the lion’s share of the increase in borrowing, up for a second month.
The Department of Labor reported unemployment held steady at 9.7% as the economy only lost 36,000 jobs in January, less than what analysts had been expecting. This fact plus the increase in consumer borrowing and the decrease in overall revolving credit are leading analysts to believe the economy is stabilizing.
The not-so-good news
The rationale that consumer borrowing is going to save the day is unsustainable. The fact unemployment is holding steady is encouraging, but I find it hard to get excited over the fact unemployment didn’t go up and we didn’t lose as many jobs as were expected. 9.7% is still way too high considering even if the economy generated 150,000 new jobs every month it still wouldn’t keep up with the increase in population growth. The number of temporary workers increased for the fifth month in a row in February by 47,500, up 11% from this time last year which means the work is there but employers don’t have enough confidence to hire full-time employees. The Labor Department reported Thursday productivity increased to an annual rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter, despite the high number of job losses, but workers can’t be expected to keep up this pace forever.


















